Gun Laws vs. Crime Rates in 2024: A Comprehensive Analysis

Gun control has been a point of contention in the United States for nearly a century. Whether it actually works is debatable. Fortunately, we have decades of data and legislation to investigate.

4 Problems with Gun Laws

1. They’re difficult to enforce.
2. Only the law-abiding obey.
3. Gun laws have little to no impact on criminality.
4. Those committing crimes with guns rarely obey the law to obtain them.

Gun Laws Are Difficult to Enforce

Laws, in general, only serve to address an incident after a crime has taken place. However, gun laws that restrict the purchase and sale of firearms aim to reduce the number of guns available to civilians.

However, the United States continues to enact firearm laws that do not work. Similar to the Prohibition of Alcohol and the War on Drugs, making items illegal does not eradicate their existence. Per the statistics below, gun laws have little to no effect on gun crime.

Only the Law-Abiding Obey Firearm Restrictions

Gun laws that make it more challenging to purchase and possess firearms only apply to those who choose to follow them. As seen in the section below regarding gun laws and gun crimes, firearms are recovered during the commission of crimes in strict gun law states as well as relaxed ones.

Furthermore, the U.S. has 120 firearms per person. The eradication of firearms is a non-viable option.

Gun Laws Have Little Impact on Criminality

In the 1980s, crime began increasing. Despite federal and state gun laws, the rates remained unchanged. Crime decreased in the mid-90s and remained low until COVID-19. This shows a stronger correlation with policing and incarceration rates than gun laws.

Those Committing Crimes with Firearms Rarely Obey the Law to Obtain Them

The vast majority of those in possession of a firearm during the commission of a crime have not obtained it legally. In fact, more than 60% of firearms used in a crime were stolen, according to the BJS’s recent report.

Furthermore, states with strict gun laws do not have lower injury or death rates than other states. Therefore, existing gun laws are rarely a deterrent to crime.

Do Strict Gun Laws Reduce Violent Crime?

We can compare state-level data and federal firearm laws to better understand how gun laws affect violent crime rates.

State Gun Laws and Violent Crime

There are many factors that affect crime rates at the state level. For example, city prosecutors and policing greatly impact the number of violent criminals in a community. However, we can still evaluate states with strict and relaxed firearm laws and their crime rates.

60% of the states in the top 5 and bottom five categories for gun laws have violent crime rates above the national average.

States with Strict Gun Laws

Strict gun laws include states that make it more challenging to purchase firearms from FFLs. Waiting periods, firearm bans, and mandatory statewide background checks (you can check out the worst states for gun ownership to better understand violent crime rates and gun laws).

• California - 499.5
• New York - 429.3
• Illinois - 429.5 (data from 2019 as several precincts failed to report violent crime data)
• New Jersey - 202.9
• Connecticut - 150

Rates are from 2022 and per 100K, so incidents of violent crime may be higher.

States with Relaxed Firearm Laws

States with relaxed firearm laws make it easier to legally purchase a firearm from an FFL dealer. These states don’t have additional background checks (aside from the federally mandated ones). You can check out all of the states with relaxed firearm laws HERE.

• New Hampshire - 125.6
• West Virginia - 380.7
• Arkansas - 645.3
• Montana - 417.9
• Mississippi - 245

Rates are from 2022 and per 100K, so incidents of violent crime may be higher.

National Gun Laws and Violent Crime

We’ll now explore sweeping federal firearm legislation and the violent crime rates that before and after.

The 1986 Gun Owner’s Protection Act

The 1986 Gun Owner’s Protection Act is misleading by name. The bill expanded the 1968 Gun Control Act and outlawed new machine guns for civilians, required FFLs to keep records of all transactions, and placed limitations on firearm sales.

• 1985 - 558.1/100k
• 1986 - 620.1/100k
• 1987 - 612.5/100k
• 1988 - 640.6/100k
• 1989 - 666.9/100k

Violent crime rates per 100k.

The 1993 Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act

The 1993 Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act aimed to restrict handgun access and reduce violent crimes. It ultimately established the NICS (national background checks) and prohibited the transfer of firearms to unlicensed individuals.

Note: The NICS wasn’t activated until 1998. Violent crime rates nationwide were already declining.

• 1996 - 636.6
• 1997 - 611
• 1998 - 567.6
• 1999 - 523
• 2000 - 506.6

Violent crime rates per 100k.

The 1994 Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act (Assault Weapons Ban)

In 1994, the federal government placed restrictions on the manufacture, sale, and possession of certain semiautomatic rifles and features.

Note: This was the same year that the federal government passed the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act, which increased policing and incarceration. It should be noted that the majority of firearms used in crimes before, during, and after the 1994 AWB were not included in the ban.

• 1993 - 747.1
• 1994 - 713.6
• 1995 - 684.5
• 1996 - 636.6
• 1997 - 611

Violent crime rates per 100k.

Do Gun Control Laws Reduce Gun Violence?

The best states for gun owners are those that don’t restrict civilians' rights to adequately defend themselves. The data shows that states with both strict and relaxed firearm laws have similar crime rates.

Note: Gun violence has become a blanket term to describe any situation involving a firearm. Therefore, it should be noted that the following data includes only incidents of violence and not self-inflicted or unintentional incidents.

States with more restrictive firearm laws still have more than 75% of homicides involving firearms. In fact, states with relaxed firearm laws have only 75% of homicides involving a firearm.

Furthermore, the states with the highest number of homicides have varying firearm laws.

Do Gun Control Laws Reduce Mass Shootings?

No. The answer is very simply, no.

Fortunately, for research purposes, Congress attempted an experiment to combat the growing mass shooting problem in America with a bill to ban the manufacture and purchase of semiautomatic rifles. Furthermore, many states have passed assault weapons bans in the past year.

While there is much debate regarding the 1994 Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act, the data shows that mass shootings were not impacted by the ban. Here are the facts:

• Mass shootings continue to trend upward despite firearm regulations. There were 26 mass shootings in the decade before the FAWB, 34 during the FAWB, and 42 in the following decade.
• Semiautomatic rifles were used in 11 mass shootings in the decade before the FAWB, 7 during the FAWB, and 12 shootings in the following decade after it expired.
• There was an average of 2.4 shootings per year before the FAWB, 3.4 shootings per year during, and 4.2 shootings per year in the following decade.
• 76% of mass shooters used a handgun between 1984 and 2014.
• So far, in 2024, 3 of the 5 top states for mass shootings are states with weapons/magazine bans, additional background checks, and overall strict gun control laws (IL, CA, PA).

Note: Due to varying definitions of “mass shooting,” the data listed above shows randomized attacks on unsuspecting individuals. The mass shootings listed contain only targeted attacks in public places where no other crimes were committed at the time (robbery, gang violence, etc., were excluded).

The number of mass shootings increased during the ban. It is the number of victims in those shootings that decreased.

Do Gun Control Laws Reduce Suicides?

No. States with more restrictions on firearms have fewer firearm-related suicides. But overall, the number of suicides do not correlate with state gun laws.

Suicide data from 2021 shows that there’s no correlation between gun laws and overall suicides.

Gun Laws and Gun Violence by State

There’s no single definition of gun violence. Some databases include incidents involving firearms where no injury occurs, the injury is self-inflicted, or a firearm is recovered in a gun-free zone.

Furthermore, there’s no single database that includes gun violence. Therefore, we must look at other factors to better understand how gun laws impact gun violence.

Firearms Crimes & Gun Laws

We can assess how many crime guns are sourced in varying states. The ATF traces firearms recovered or involved in the commission of a crime.

The top five states for recovered crime guns have various levels of gun restrictions.

Firearms used in crimes are recovered in states with varying firearm restrictions.

Firearm-related Injuries

Another outlet to better understand gun violence and gun laws is by looking at hospitalizations. The following graph represents states' gunshot-related hospitalizations from 2000-2016.

Available data shows hospitalizations per 10,000 in states with varying gun laws.

Sources

• The 1994 FAWB
• 1986 FOPA
• Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act (1993/1994)
• Hospitalizations
• Firearm Trace Data
• Firearm Mortality
• Violent Crime Data
• BJS Report Crime Guns